SCSA News, Weather, and Training

SOARING WEATHER FORECAST FOR SCSA (CRYSTALAIRE – 46CN) APRIL 2-5, 2010

WEEKEND SYNOPSIS (FROM NWS)

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)…VERY NICE DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THU. A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE BAY AREA WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. 12Z MODELS SHOWED
THIS SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DROP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. WILL PROBABLY ADD SOME LOW POPS THERE WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. OTHERWISE, FORECAST ON TRACK. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER WITH IT THAN THE NAM, BUT BOTH INDICATE A HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL
PROBABLY INCLUDE HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS. STILL NOT A MAJOR
SYSTEM EXPECTED, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER OVERALL THAN
THE LAST SYSTEM.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)…ON MONDAY…THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA AND THE SHOWER THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF NOTICEABLY THROUGH THE
DAY…ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
NORTH SLOPES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA.

Dr Jack’s predictions indicate FRIDAY the ceiling of useable lift will be at 9,000 feet with 500 fpm of lift.
SATURDAY is looking great. 550 FPM of lift at the field to 10,000 feet.
SUNDAY Dr. Jack is predicting 500 FPM of lift to 8,500 feet.

Dr. Jack’s Blipmaps and soaring predictions are free with a simple registration at his website.
http://www.drjack.info/


The National Weather Service is predicting the following surface conditions for Friday through Monday:


FRIDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 67 degrees
Wind: West 13 to 16 mph.


SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 67 degrees
Wind: West 9 to 15 mph.


SUNDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 62 degrees
Wind: Southwest 9 to 14 mph.


MONDAY:
Partly Cloudy, Temperature: 55 degrees
Wind: West up to 20 mph. Gusty

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