Southern California Soaring Academy

WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, APRIL 20 to 23, 2012

LAST WEEK: We had remarkably good soaring weather. Friday was a blowout with the wet weather but Saturday onwards were the best (non-wave) soaring days we’ve had so far in 2012. Sunday pilots were staying above 10,00 feet. Some made several circuits (Harry W. in 4U) of the San Gabriel Mtn. range from Hwy. I15 to I14 and back never pausing to circle. Nice! Monday was similar but not quite as “boomer” but Harry was up again and repeated parts of his season tune-up racetrack circuit along the mountains pausing to play in lift above 10,000 foot Mt Baldy.

THIS WEEK: HOT, SUNNY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD A gentle northerly flow will set up Friday. Saturday the wind will begin to clock around to the east and southeast but will remain gentle. Temps will be markedly above normal and into the 90′s by Saturday cooking the ground and kicking off thermals. Lift conditions look GREAT throughout the period.

Sunday and Monday the offshore conditions well be replace by our usual South and Westerly flow although temps will remain high. Thermal forecast looks very good for these days also. Height of useable lift forecast for the period is excellent. Great soaring weather!

SATURDAY HEIGHT OF USEABLE LIFT FORECAST: (LOOKS TO BE UP TO 12,0000 FEET)

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 68 degrees.
Wind: Northeast 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 90 degrees
Wind: Souteast 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 87 degrees
Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 83 degrees
Wind: South 10 mph.


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WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, APRIL 13 to 16, 2012

THIS WEEK A mixed report for soaring conditions that will markedly improve starting Saturday. Friday rain is likely as a fast moving storm system arrives from the Northwest. This system is preceded by “shortwave” conditions with a strong tendency to lift aloft the atmosphere ahead of the stormtrack producing prodigious amounts of precipitation. We will get snow in our local mountians. Pretty significant wind is forecast Friday. Good news is this fast moving system will quickly clear to the east and we’ll have bright sunny soaring conditions Sunday and Monday. The winds forecast for Sunday and Monday will be very gentle making for calm soaring conditions in the wake of the weather systems departure. Saturday the forecast looks quite good for clear sunny skies.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Cloudy. Temperature: 52 degrees. Rain likely.
Wind: Southwest 25 to 35 mph. Gusty.

SATURDAY:
Mostly sunny, Temperature: 55 degrees
Wind: Northwest 25 to 30 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 68 degrees
Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 74 degrees
Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.


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WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, APRIL 6 to 9, 2012

THIS WEEK A major warm-up will occur this weekend in our area with temps in the mid eighties as a mild offshore flow develops. Overnight temps though are forecast to be very cold and below freezing. The overnight “cold-soak” of the terrain may or may not affect thermal potential. YMMV. Friday and Saturday the wind will be out of our “least” favorite direction —Southeasterly. The good news is the wind forecast is very gentle. Likely we’ll have some good early season thermal activity

SUNDAY
The offshore flow will cancel and our wind will swing back into the southwest as temperatures climb into the eighties. SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE EXCELLENT THERMAL POTENTIAL.

MONDAY
MAY BE EVEN BETTER THAN SUNDAY FOR THERMAL POTENTIAL. A large weather system will hit So. Cal. this coming week. There may be an opportunity for wave to develop Monday afternoon as the pre-frontal conditions push high-level wind in from the southwest across our mountains.

SUNDAY THERMAL UPDRAFT VELOCITY FORECAST FOR 2:00 PM

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 67 degrees
Wind: East 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 79 degrees
Wind: Southeast 5 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 82 degrees
Wind: Southwest 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 83 degrees
Wind: Southwest 5 to 10 mph.


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WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, MARCH 30 to April 2, 2012

THIS WEEK Nice sunny soaring weather is forecast throughout this period. Temps will be a few degrees above normal. Westerlies will prevail with a dry offshore (albeit gentle) northerly component arriving Monday. Friday the calm wind and highest temps of the weekend will make for some good thermal conditions for those who can make it out on a workday. Not to worry, the rest of the weekend will have good thermal potential also. Monday the wind will clock to the North as a gentle offshore flow develops. Throughout this period the coastal areas will likely be under a marine layer while we enjoy bright sunny weather. Dale assures us that we can expect thermals every day now barring overcast conditions. Come on out!

I WAS ON VACATION
So I was not able to post last weeks soaring forecast. My weather post for the March 16 – 19 weekend I forecast significant wave conditions. …And our pilots reported some healthy wave that lasted several days. At times we had rotor touch down at the field forcing us to temporarily halt operations. Dale had a “fun” lesson with a student where they encountered upwards of 2,000 feet a minute of sink in the pattern due to “wave sink”. It always pays to plan ahead in those conditions. They dove into ground effect at 100 knots and executed a textbook landing as they safely popped back onto the field at a 90 degree angle to the runway. Many pilots picked off excellent wave flights that weekend.

THIS FRIDAY
DR JACKS blipmap forecast points to thermal conditions lasting far into the afternoon. Likely due to the calm wind and high temps it’ll be the best thermal day this period. The following thermal forecast is for 4pm.

SATURDAY AM UPDATE:

THE WEATHER SERVICE HAS UPDATED ITS WINDS FORECAST AND WE EXPECT SOME WAVE SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 9,000 FEET ARE 30 KNOTS AT 240 DEGREES. GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY PM.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 76 degrees
Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 68 degrees
Wind: Southwest 15 to 25 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 62 degrees
Wind: Northwest 15 to 25 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 69 degrees
Wind: Northeast 10 to 15 mph.


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