SCSA News, Weather, and Training

Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category

WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, JANUARY 6 to 9, 2012

It should be an interesting soaring weekend with our above average temps falling back down to normal for Saturday. After this brief respite it will heat up again to above normal this coming week.
Thermal conditions will likely be above what is expected for this time of year. The ground has had several days of heat combined with a lack of night time cold soaking due to moderate temps. That should allow us some thermals from the usual suspects ie. morning mountain and second ridge. There is not much snow cover for this time of year and these lower hills are mostly barren and might heat up enough for thermal activity. Starting early Sunday morning it looks like the Northeast flow will come back with vengence enough for the NWS to issue warnings. This wind event will be brief and come Monday it will be back to gentle breezes out of the North under sunny skies.
Look for bow wave east of the field during these Northerly wind events.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 71 degrees
Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 63 degrees
Wind: West 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 61 degrees
Wind: Northeast 15 to 20+ mph. Gusty.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 64 degrees
Wind: Northeast 10 mph.

-Robert….

WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, DECEMBER 30 TO JANUARY 2, 2012

Another extended period of warmer than normal -weak offshore flow will prevail this weekend and on into next week. Friday being the exception with some Northwest flow before turning back to the Northeast by the evening. Appearance of high level stratus on Friday likely otherwise clear and CAVU.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Friday morning, Dale towed aloft in our Schweizer 232 (BH) and found some suspicious lift south of Mt. Lewis on an otherwise lackluster soaring day. I towed aloft appx. 12:00 in HY (HP-18) and found a mix of ridge and convergence in the bowl surrounded by Mt. Lewis, Throop, Islip and Williamson to the west. I was soon joined by Dale again in the 232 on a lesson. Bradley towed up and joined us in his ASW-28 (ES). We all had several hours fun taking turns polishing the rocks. Great soaring day!

SATURDAY THERMAL UPDRAFT FORECAST 1400 HRS.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 69 degrees
Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 66 degrees
Wind: Northeast 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 67 degrees
Wind: Northeast 10 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 67 degrees
Wind: Northeast 5 to 10 mph.

-Robert….

WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, DECEMBER 23 TO 26, 2011

High pressure building in over Nevada/Utah means our surface temperatures will increase each day through Monday. It will be MUCH warmer than the seasonal norm by Sunday – Monday. An offshore Santa Ana condition will prevail with wind mainly out of the Northeast to East. The canyon passes and valley area will experience some significant wind speeds Friday but our area will likely only be a bit breezy (ignore the televised weather warnings as they only apply to the LA and canyon pass areas -wind accelerates as it compressses downhill from our high desert). The wind will be gentle verging on calm Saturday onwards continuing its North component trend. Monday seems to be an interesting day with the return of our westerlies and some above season high temps forecast in conjunction with still air.
Looks like a good time to hunt off-season thermals, enjoy warm sunny soaring weather and avoid pesky in-laws. Whoohoo!

Dr. Jack’s Blipmap forecast indicates scattered thermal activity of 300 to 500 FPM in our area throughout this period.

SATURDAY THERMAL UPDRAFT FORECAST 1400 HRS.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 50 degrees
Wind: Northeast 10 to 15 mph. Gusty.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 55 degrees
Wind: East 5 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 58 degrees
Wind: Northeast 5 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 60 degrees
Wind: Southwest 5 mph.

-Robert….

WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, DECEMBER 16 TO 19, 2011

The jet stream carried cold, wet and snowy weather into our area this last week leaving a fresh dusting of snow on our mountains. That system has moved east leaving us with clear sunny skies throughout this period. An offshore Santa Ana condition will develop Friday with some gusty Northeast winds forecast for the afternoon. Saturday the winds will be gentle and the temperature is forecast to increase. Sunday the conditions will again change with the return of gentle Westerly breezes.

It will be sunny and pleasant throughout this period.

SATURDAY UPDATE:
Friday we had BOW WAVE upwind of our mountain range. Dale Masters and student spent quite a bit of time east of Wrightwood in the Grob 103 battling extreme rotor up to the smooth bow wave. They liked that challenge so much they descended and did it again. Bradley Baum towed to the work camp area at the second ridge in his ASW 28 and after struggling with the rotor, successfully hooked up with the bow wave to 14,000 feet. He was forced to descend due to the unanticipated extreme cold soaking after flying several hours in the wave. After some hot tea he was able to communicate the details of an amazing flight.

Why are we having this strange weather pattern with 180 wind direction changes? – - A circular pattern of the jet stream has “torn off” of the main flow. Kind of like a cutoff low looks on a surface synoptic chart. That “circular” ball of the jet stream is rotating in our area so as it moves we’ll be subjected alternatively to different parts of the circular wind patterns. This should subside in a day or two from now and we’ll be back to our westerlies.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 50 degrees
Wind: Calm becoming Northeast 15 to 20 mph. Gusty.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 56 degrees
Wind: Northeast 10 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 55 degrees
Wind: West 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 55 degrees
Wind: Northeast 5 mph.

-Robert….