Southern California Soaring Academy

WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, MARCH 9 to 12, 2012

Sometimes I’m amazed at the NWS (NOAA’s) ability to forecast conditions quite a ways in advance. Although they do miss their mark at times when dealing with highly variable air masses such as a cutoff low. The previous Monday they predicted 5 days in advance we’d have calm winds and the forecast was dead-on.

LAST MONDAY I towed aloft in 22HY not expecting much. We had a cirro-stratus overcast although the skew-T looked good. I thought it was too early in the season for thermals to happen in underpowered solar conditions. I debated not taking covers off my ship and rigging but was glad I did. Several pilots had a really fun day in diverse conditions. At one point we had a nice gaggle with 5 ships climbing up above second ridge in what appeared to be mixed “con-thermal-gence”. My new word. Thank you.

John (PIK 20), Bradley Baum (ASW-28), Jonathan Delbruck (Sparrowhawk), Dale Masters and student (ASK-21) and me (HP-18) were attending the lift party. We took off in different directions exploring for lift. Dale in ASK 700SA went West and clued me in via radio he and student found local wave at Williamson. I flew the several miles there at speed but came in lower than Dale. I hit rotor at the punchbowl and was below the summit of the mountains -for a long time. Took several sessions of bashing around to find the upside (then getting spit out) of the rotor but I eventually made it to the laminar flow and cruised on up to 12,500 for a while until my feet started freezing and it was time to return. What a great day we had!

THIS WEEK We will enjoy nice sunny weather ahead of a weather front arriving next week.

Friday we’ll have a nice warm-up with dry offshore flow from the Northeast albeit moderate.

Saturday the wind will be gentle as it clocks around to the South with another nice bump-up in temperatures on the ground and absence of cloud cover. Great day to look for local thermals and possibly some nice slope generated thermal coalescence on those hills without snow cover ie. morning mountain, Lewis and second ridge.

Sunday through Monday look for a continuation of Saturdays conditions. As the weather front approaches the coast we might get some wave action -or not as there is a chance of an eddy developing. Check your winds aloft forecast on those mornings for the 12,000 foot wind speeds from the south or southwest and look for 20+ knots which would be a great indicator.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 69 degrees
Wind: Northeast 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 72 degrees
Wind: South 5 to 10 mph. Becoming West.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 64 degrees
Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 58 degrees
Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph.


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WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, MARCH 2 to 5, 2012

This period a solid warm dry Northeast flow will dominate through Sunday. We expect to see temps 10 degrees higher than normal for several days. Our winds in the high desert will likely be moderate but as they accelerate through the passes (especially the 15 corridor) they will really gain momentum and whip through those areas. Ignore the televised weather forecasts as they sensationalize the weather in the LA area. Expect good opportunity to find ridge lift and bow wave both Friday and Saturday.

SUNDAY and MONDAY -The Northeast wind component will weaken Sunday and by Monday we should have unusually calm weather with above average temps forecast. Great time to hunt for spring thermals on both days with the chance for some nice thermic conditions to coalesce. Spring is only days away now and the thermals will start to quickly gain in intensity and frequency in the coming weeks. This is a smart time to schedule flights and instruction before the busy season is upon us.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 56 degrees
Wind: Northeast 15 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 67 degrees
Wind: East 10 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 72 degrees
Wind: Northeast 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 72 degrees
Wind: CALM.


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WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, FEBRUARY 24 to 27, 2012

Each day gets longer as the sun travels higher this time of year. It will be spring in a few more weeks. Our thermal potential increases every day. Yesterday was an example of a mediocre soaring day yet our pilots found unexpected thermals at morning mountain leading up to the summit of Mt. Williamson. Not bad for February.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY -We will be enjoying a sunny warm weather system with higher than normal temps. Expect a gentle offshore flow Friday that will become calm as another weather pattern approaches and cancels the Northeast flow.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY It will be sunny but with cooler weather forecast as the weather pattern changes. Our westerlies will return pushed along by the jetstream. Both days look like good candidates for ridge saoring with good potential for arrival of wave on Monday. It will be overcast along the coast Sunday through Monday but nice and sunny here. Great soaring weather!

Monday’s Jet Stream Forecast

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 69 degrees
Wind: Northeast 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 67 degrees
Wind: West 10 to 20 mph. Becoming gusty.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 63 degrees
Wind: West 5 to 15 mph. Gusty.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 55 degrees
Wind: Northwest 10 to 15 mph.


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WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, FEBRUARY 17 to 20, 2012

The last few weeks we have seen an almost continous series of changing weather patterns arrive and depart in quick succession.

This week the pattern continues as FRIDAY the temps. will increase to above normal as a dry Northeast flow fills into our area from the North (due to our rainy weather system exiting south into Mexico).

SATURDAY we will quickly change back to our typical westerly flow. It looks like quite a good day for wave with wind out of the southwest at high velocity aloft. As Saturday progresses, the wind should start to clock around to the Northwest closing down the wave so don’t dally or you will miss all the fun.

Sunday and Monday we will have clear sunny weather with westerly winds while the coast will remain under clouds with a chance of drizzle.

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 59 degrees
Wind: Northeast 10 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 71 degrees
Wind: West 15 to 20 mph. Becoming gusty.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 53 degrees
Wind: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 58 degrees
Wind: West 10 to 15 mph. Gusty.


email weather comments to robert.settle@gmail.com