Typically, winter here brings some kind of soarable condition almost every other day, whether it’s upslope winds, converging winds, wave of course, some variety of workable rotor, or even thermals from the hour’s most ideal hilltop. Between mid-December and mid-February we expect some kind of soaring – often uniquely interesting hybrids of two or more energies – at least a couple days a week.

Well this time is different. On New Years Day a spell of classic northerly conditions ran its course, and since then we’ve seen two full weeks of no soarable weather whatever. Pleasant days overall, spiced with a bit of rain as usual for this time of year, but absent any useful wind or other source of lift.

No explanation for this is proposed here, just a thought about probability: We are DUE!

Our coming week’s forecast looks similar to the past two (so we’ll have more pleasant days anyway), but continuation of this flat trend only increases the likelyhood for a hefty dose of fine winter soaring coming our way… sometime fairly soon.