SOARING FORECAST JULY 6-9, 2012

UPDATE: T-STORMS AND OVERDEVELOPMENT VERY LIKELY MONDAY IN OUR AREA

THIS WEEK
Sizzling Hot weather with temps increasing daily this period. Sunday and Monday we’ll have temps well over 100 degrees so be prepared for fantastic lift and remember to keep hydrated. The outlook for thermal lift is excellent. Height of lift forecast looks to be in the 12,000 range at the field as of this forecast going forward into Saturday. Sunday and Monday will be hotter and likely even better. Slight chance of overdevelopment Monday. The only caveat to this forecast is possibility of inversion hovering around 10K TO 12K feet due to the high pressure aloft. It may burn out or thermals may push though it (likely). If you have been wondering where our signature booming soaring conditions have been this season -they’re here now!

 

SYNOPSIS: The stubbornly stationary ridge of high pressure that has been cooking the Eastern US all week is expanding Westward clearing out the marine influence. As it pushes Westward it will overlay the lower atmosphere. Kind of an unusual trend. That will mean high pressure aloft over our area and high temperatures on the ground. Long distance pilots should note that this high pressure/temperature aloft system will create an inversion (albeit gentle) that will have to be taken into consideration. You may get boomer lift for long distances but capped to the (relatively) lower altitudes. High pressure aloft can mean capping upward potential of air movement even if there is no inversion whereas low pressure aloft is ideal to allow upward movement. Sunday and Monday the monsoonal influence will create potential for T-storms and overdevelopment if we get a moisture spin-up from the south.



SATURDAY THERMAL UPDRAFT VELOCITY FORECAST 1300 HOURS


SATURDAY SKEW-T FORECAST 1300 HOURS (NOTE INVERSION AT 12K)




 

The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Saturday through Monday:


FRIDAY:
Sunny and Hot, Temperature: 93 degrees
Wind: West 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny and Hot, Temperature: 96 degrees
Wind: West 10 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY
Sunny and Hot, Temperature: 100 degrees
Wind: West 10 to 15 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny and Hot, Temperature: 103 degrees
Wind: West 10 to 15 mph.


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