SOARING FORECAST, MARCH 9 to 12, 2012

WEEKEND SOARING FORECAST, MARCH 9 to 12, 2012

Sometimes I’m amazed at the NWS (NOAA’s) ability to forecast conditions quite a ways in advance. Although they do miss their mark at times when dealing with highly variable air masses such as a cutoff low. The previous Monday they predicted 5 days in advance we’d have calm winds and the forecast was dead-on.

LAST MONDAY I towed aloft in 22HY not expecting much. We had a cirro-stratus overcast although the skew-T looked good. I thought it was too early in the season for thermals to happen in underpowered solar conditions. I debated not taking covers off my ship and rigging but was glad I did. Several pilots had a really fun day in diverse conditions. At one point we had a nice gaggle with 5 ships climbing up above second ridge in what appeared to be mixed “con-thermal-gence”. My new word. Thank you.

John (PIK 20), Bradley Baum (ASW-28), Jonathan Delbruck (Sparrowhawk), Dale Masters and student (ASK-21) and me (HP-18) were attending the lift party. We took off in different directions exploring for lift. Dale in ASK 700SA went West and clued me in via radio he and student found local wave at Williamson. I flew the several miles there at speed but came in lower than Dale. I hit rotor at the punchbowl and was below the summit of the mountains -for a long time. Took several sessions of bashing around to find the upside (then getting spit out) of the rotor but I eventually made it to the laminar flow and cruised on up to 12,500 for a while until my feet started freezing and it was time to return. What a great day we had!


THIS WEEK We will enjoy nice sunny weather ahead of a weather front arriving next week.

Friday we’ll have a nice warm-up with dry offshore flow from the Northeast albeit moderate.

Saturday the wind will be gentle as it clocks around to the South with another nice bump-up in temperatures on the ground and absence of cloud cover. Great day to look for local thermals and possibly some nice slope generated thermal coalescence on those hills without snow cover ie. morning mountain, Lewis and second ridge.

Sunday through Monday look for a continuation of Saturdays conditions. As the weather front approaches the coast we might get some wave action -or not as there is a chance of an eddy developing. Check your winds aloft forecast on those mornings for the 12,000 foot wind speeds from the south or southwest and look for 20+ knots which would be a great indicator.



The National Weather Service is predicting the following local surface conditions for Friday through Monday:

FRIDAY:
Sunny. Temperature: 69 degrees
Wind: Northeast 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 72 degrees
Wind: South 5 to 10 mph. Becoming West.

SUNDAY
Sunny, Temperature: 64 degrees
Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph.

MONDAY:
Sunny, Temperature: 58 degrees
Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph.


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